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Re: Is there a 'iPhone moment' coming for humanoids, or is that hype?
Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2025 3:39 pm
by ethan_fisc
@mia.weber This matches what I've seen too.
A lot of the current wave genuinely is repackaged 2000s and 2010s research (ZMP walking, whole-body control, DARPA-era grasping) combined with two things that weren't available then: cheap high-torque-density actuators and large-scale learned policies. Wheeled-torso designs solve 90% of warehouse and light-industrial tasks with far less complexity than a biped, which is exactly why so many 'humanoid' demos quietly have wheels under a skirt.
Re: Is there a 'iPhone moment' coming for humanoids, or is that hype?
Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2025 1:45 pm
by zoeanderson
I can speak to this a bit.
Legs earn their keep specifically where the environment wasn't redesigned for robots - stairs, curbs, uneven yards, cluttered floors - which is a smaller slice of real-world tasks than the marketing suggests. A genuinely underrated bottleneck is neither hardware nor pure ML - it's the unglamorous integration work of making perception, planning, and control agree with each other reliably for eight-hour shifts.
Kind of makes me think about how different this all looked even three years ago.
Re: Is there a 'iPhone moment' coming for humanoids, or is that hype?
Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2025 2:06 am
by kwilliams
@zoeanderson That's the official framing, at least - reality tends to lag a bit.
The 'humanoid' form factor mostly wins on infrastructure compatibility, not raw efficiency - stairs, doors, and tools were all built for a human body plan, so a legged, two-armed robot slots into existing spaces without retrofitting them.
Re: Is there a 'iPhone moment' coming for humanoids, or is that hype?
Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2025 6:29 am
by ethan_fisc
Still learning the space, so correct me if wrong -
Open-source humanoid projects matter less for out-competing the well-funded players and more for keeping the barrier to entry low enough that new ideas and new people can actually get into the field. Roughly 7,000-8,000 commercial humanoids are estimated to be operational worldwide as of mid-2026, which sounds like a lot until you compare it to the millions of industrial arms already installed.
This whole thread is a good reminder how young this field still is.
Re: Is there a 'iPhone moment' coming for humanoids, or is that hype?
Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2025 11:08 pm
by park44
@ethan_fisc Ran into exactly this myself.
'General purpose' in 2026 mostly means 'can be reprogrammed for a new task without new hardware,' not 'can walk into any environment and figure things out unsupervised.'
Re: Is there a 'iPhone moment' coming for humanoids, or is that hype?
Posted: Sat Apr 12, 2025 4:01 am
by jhansen
This is exactly the kind of context I was looking for.
A recurring pattern in the field: a capability looks solved in a controlled demo, then takes another 18-24 months of engineering to become boringly reliable in the field. The 'humanoid' form factor mostly wins on infrastructure compatibility, not raw efficiency - stairs, doors, and tools were all built for a human body plan, so a legged, two-armed robot slots into existing spaces without retrofitting them.
Re: Is there a 'iPhone moment' coming for humanoids, or is that hype?
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2025 7:36 am
by karen.chen3
@jhansen I'd push back on this a bit.
A recurring pattern in the field: a capability looks solved in a controlled demo, then takes another 18-24 months of engineering to become boringly reliable in the field.
Re: Is there a 'iPhone moment' coming for humanoids, or is that hype?
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2025 6:15 pm
by scott.andersson5
@karen.chen3 I don't think that's quite right, for what it's worth.
The safety case for humanoids working near people usually leans on compliant/backdrivable joints plus soft force limits, but there isn't yet a mature, widely-adopted standard equivalent to what industrial arms have had for decades. Roughly 7,000-8,000 commercial humanoids are estimated to be operational worldwide as of mid-2026, which sounds like a lot until you compare it to the millions of industrial arms already installed.
Re: Is there a 'iPhone moment' coming for humanoids, or is that hype?
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2025 3:31 pm
by scott21
@scott.andersson5 From what I've seen:
The safety case for humanoids working near people usually leans on compliant/backdrivable joints plus soft force limits, but there isn't yet a mature, widely-adopted standard equivalent to what industrial arms have had for decades.
Makes me wonder how this looks in another five years.
Re: Is there a 'iPhone moment' coming for humanoids, or is that hype?
Posted: Wed May 07, 2025 12:55 pm
by williams84
@scott21 Genuinely curious -
A genuinely underrated bottleneck is neither hardware nor pure ML - it's the unglamorous integration work of making perception, planning, and control agree with each other reliably for eight-hour shifts.