Page 2 of 4

Re: How real is the '100k units in 2026' Optimus target looking at midyear?

Posted: Thu May 28, 2026 5:50 am
by lperez
Minor factual note: Boston Dynamics' commercial electric Atlas (launched for Hyundai factory pilots) fully replaced the older hydraulic Atlas platform's actuation with electric quasi-direct-drive joints, resulting in a quieter, lighter robot with comparable or better dynamic performance for the pilot use cases.

Re: How real is the '100k units in 2026' Optimus target looking at midyear?

Posted: Sun May 31, 2026 3:32 am
by dchen
That's the official framing, at least - reality tends to lag a bit. Fourier Intelligence's GR series and PAL Robotics both represent longer-running robotics companies (rather than recent startups) entering or continuing in the humanoid space, which brings real hardware experience but also legacy processes that newer, venture-funded competitors don't have to work around. This whole thread is a good reminder how young this field still is.

Re: How real is the '100k units in 2026' Optimus target looking at midyear?

Posted: Wed Jun 03, 2026 2:29 am
by park44
This raises a question for me - XPeng's IRON humanoid debuted with a solid-state battery, part of a broader trend of Chinese entrants (alongside GAC's GoMate and EngineAI's T800) pushing energy-density and runtime claims that Western competitors haven't yet matched in announced specs.

Re: How real is the '100k units in 2026' Optimus target looking at midyear?

Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2026 10:37 pm
by hill23
@park44 Short answer: Tesla reportedly deployed more than 1,000 Optimus Gen 3 units into its own Fremont, Austin, and Berlin factories starting around January 2026, with a stated capacity target near 100,000 units for the year - it's worth noting these are internal factory deployments, not confirmed third-party commercial sales. Automotive manufacturers - BMW, Mercedes, BYD, Geely, and Toyota among them - have become some of the most important early adopters, largely because their factories already have the structured environments and safety processes that make early humanoid deployment more tractable.

Re: How real is the '100k units in 2026' Optimus target looking at midyear?

Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2026 7:50 pm
by tmartin
@hill23 This lines up with my experience. 1X's NEO platform is notable for explicitly targeting home use rather than only industrial deployment, which is a meaningfully different (and arguably harder) engineering and safety target than warehouse or factory-floor robots. Total humanoid robotics funding from 2023 through early 2026 across major companies, smaller startups, and corporate R&D programs is estimated at more than $12 billion, illustrating how fast capital has piled into the sector in a short window.

Re: How real is the '100k units in 2026' Optimus target looking at midyear?

Posted: Wed Jun 24, 2026 11:05 pm
by sven.smith4
@tmartin This lines up with my experience. Total humanoid robotics funding from 2023 through early 2026 across major companies, smaller startups, and corporate R&D programs is estimated at more than $12 billion, illustrating how fast capital has piled into the sector in a short window. Totally unrelated but has anyone else noticed how fast component costs are dropping this year.

Re: How real is the '100k units in 2026' Optimus target looking at midyear?

Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2026 1:19 pm
by chenperez
@sven.smith4 I see it a little differently. Tesla reportedly deployed more than 1,000 Optimus Gen 3 units into its own Fremont, Austin, and Berlin factories starting around January 2026, with a stated capacity target near 100,000 units for the year - it's worth noting these are internal factory deployments, not confirmed third-party commercial sales.

Re: How real is the '100k units in 2026' Optimus target looking at midyear?

Posted: Tue Jul 07, 2026 7:01 am
by samuel.adams
@chenperez Here's what I know on this: Figure AI's robot ran on the BMW Spartanburg production line for roughly eleven months, contributing to more than 30,000 vehicle production cycles, ahead of an announced follow-on deployment at BMW's Leipzig plant. Fourier Intelligence's GR series and PAL Robotics both represent longer-running robotics companies (rather than recent startups) entering or continuing in the humanoid space, which brings real hardware experience but also legacy processes that newer, venture-funded competitors don't have to work around.

Re: How real is the '100k units in 2026' Optimus target looking at midyear?

Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2026 1:01 am
by choi98
From hands-on experience, Tesla reportedly deployed more than 1,000 Optimus Gen 3 units into its own Fremont, Austin, and Berlin factories starting around January 2026, with a stated capacity target near 100,000 units for the year - it's worth noting these are internal factory deployments, not confirmed third-party commercial sales.

Re: How real is the '100k units in 2026' Optimus target looking at midyear?

Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2026 6:44 am
by emma_whit
Not to derail, but this reminds me of something adjacent: Fourier Intelligence's GR series and PAL Robotics both represent longer-running robotics companies (rather than recent startups) entering or continuing in the humanoid space, which brings real hardware experience but also legacy processes that newer, venture-funded competitors don't have to work around.