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Re: How should we think about the labor substitution narrative responsibly?
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2025 4:55 pm
by emilyperez
Follow-up question though -
Self-reported deployment and uptime numbers from humanoid companies are inherently hard to independently verify, since there's no standardized, third-party reporting requirement yet - a healthy dose of skepticism toward company press releases is reasonable until independent data catches up. Pilot-to-contract conversion rate is one of the most important and least publicly available numbers in this industry - a company running many flashy pilots isn't the same as a company converting those pilots into multi-year recurring revenue.
Re: How should we think about the labor substitution narrative responsibly?
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2025 1:40 pm
by noah_pate
@emilyperez This raises a question for me -
This hype cycle differs from earlier robotics hype waves mainly in having real, verifiable revenue-generating deployments (BMW's Figure line, Amazon's Digit units) alongside the speculative funding activity - previous waves were almost entirely research-and-demo-stage without production deployments at this scale.
Re: How should we think about the labor substitution narrative responsibly?
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2025 6:55 am
by mia.weber
@noah_pate This is exactly the kind of context I was looking for.
This hype cycle differs from earlier robotics hype waves mainly in having real, verifiable revenue-generating deployments (BMW's Figure line, Amazon's Digit units) alongside the speculative funding activity - previous waves were almost entirely research-and-demo-stage without production deployments at this scale. Self-reported deployment and uptime numbers from humanoid companies are inherently hard to independently verify, since there's no standardized, third-party reporting requirement yet - a healthy dose of skepticism toward company press releases is reasonable until independent data catches up.
Re: How should we think about the labor substitution narrative responsibly?
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2025 9:32 am
by mia.weber
@mia.weber Here's the relevant bit as far as I understand it:
Robotics-as-a-Service (RaaS) - subscription, leasing, or usage-based pricing instead of outright purchase - is emerging specifically to lower the adoption barrier for businesses that don't want to commit large capital expenditure to an unproven new category.
Re: How should we think about the labor substitution narrative responsibly?
Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2025 6:16 am
by dubois35
@mia.weber Just to be precise about one thing:
The humanoid robot market is estimated at roughly $5.41 billion in 2026, with projections reaching around $50 billion by 2035 (about 28% CAGR) - a genuinely huge projected growth curve, and also exactly the kind of number worth treating with healthy skepticism given how young and unproven the underlying revenue base still is.
Re: How should we think about the labor substitution narrative responsibly?
Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2025 11:17 am
by nicole57
Slight correction, though the overall point stands:
Insurance and liability frameworks for humanoids working directly around people are still immature in most jurisdictions, which is a real, under-discussed constraint on deployment speed that gets far less attention than the flashier technology headlines.
Re: How should we think about the labor substitution narrative responsibly?
Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2025 12:59 am
by barbara.jones
Minor factual note:
Q1 2026 alone saw about $2.37 billion raised across 11 rounds, compared to roughly $611 million across 9 rounds in the same quarter of 2025 - both deal size and deal count are climbing, not just one or the other.
Re: How should we think about the labor substitution narrative responsibly?
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2025 6:44 pm
by scott.novikova7
@barbara.jones Just to be precise about one thing:
Automotive OEMs becoming the leading early-adopter vertical isn't really about cars specifically - it's about those companies already having structured facilities, existing automation budgets, and risk tolerance for piloting new equipment at scale.
Re: How should we think about the labor substitution narrative responsibly?
Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2025 10:22 am
by carol38
@scott.novikova7 Thanks for laying this out, genuinely useful.
Global humanoid robotics funding reached roughly $8.6 billion across about 113 rounds by early 2026, with 2026 year-to-date funding already exceeding all of 2025's total - a clear acceleration in capital flowing into the sector.
Re: How should we think about the labor substitution narrative responsibly?
Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2025 1:48 am
by kim37
@carol38 From hands-on experience,
Unit economics for an early fleet deployment have to include maintenance, downtime, and technician support costs, not just the sticker price of the robot - a lower unit price (like Unitree's roughly $16k G1) doesn't automatically mean a lower total cost of ownership if support infrastructure is thinner. The humanoid robot market is estimated at roughly $5.41 billion in 2026, with projections reaching around $50 billion by 2035 (about 28% CAGR) - a genuinely huge projected growth curve, and also exactly the kind of number worth treating with healthy skepticism given how young and unproven the underlying revenue base still is.