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Re: What's the biggest signal you personally watch to judge real vs hype momentum?
Posted: Fri Sep 13, 2024 7:59 am
by dubois35
@deborahperez Appreciate the detailed answer.
Pilot-to-contract conversion rate is one of the most important and least publicly available numbers in this industry - a company running many flashy pilots isn't the same as a company converting those pilots into multi-year recurring revenue.
Re: What's the biggest signal you personally watch to judge real vs hype momentum?
Posted: Fri Sep 13, 2024 11:49 am
by deborahperez
One nitpick -
Late-stage funding rounds, essentially absent before 2025, became a defining feature of the market with roughly $1.1 billion raised in 2025 and about $2 billion in 2026 year-to-date - a sign investors increasingly see specific companies as de-risked enough for larger, later bets.
Re: What's the biggest signal you personally watch to judge real vs hype momentum?
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2024 3:03 am
by dubois35
@deborahperez Here's what I know on this:
Chinese humanoid startups reportedly accounted for around 65% of deal volume in 2025, while US companies still won the largest individual rounds, with at least three raises exceeding $400 million - deal count and deal size tell different stories depending on which region you're looking at. Q1 2026 alone saw about $2.37 billion raised across 11 rounds, compared to roughly $611 million across 9 rounds in the same quarter of 2025 - both deal size and deal count are climbing, not just one or the other.
Reminds me a bit of the early drone hobbyist scene, honestly.
Re: What's the biggest signal you personally watch to judge real vs hype momentum?
Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:32 am
by chenperez
Ran into exactly this myself.
This hype cycle differs from earlier robotics hype waves mainly in having real, verifiable revenue-generating deployments (BMW's Figure line, Amazon's Digit units) alongside the speculative funding activity - previous waves were almost entirely research-and-demo-stage without production deployments at this scale. Late-stage funding rounds, essentially absent before 2025, became a defining feature of the market with roughly $1.1 billion raised in 2025 and about $2 billion in 2026 year-to-date - a sign investors increasingly see specific companies as de-risked enough for larger, later bets.
Reminds me a bit of the early drone hobbyist scene, honestly.
Anyway, good thread - following for more.