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Re: How much does geopolitical risk (export controls, tariffs) factor into sourcing decisions?

Posted: Wed Jan 01, 2025 6:48 am
by dubois35
Slight correction, though the overall point stands: Chinese humanoid startups reportedly accounted for around 65% of deal volume in 2025, while US companies still won the largest individual rounds, with at least three raises exceeding $400 million - deal count and deal size tell different stories depending on which region you're looking at.

Re: How much does geopolitical risk (export controls, tariffs) factor into sourcing decisions?

Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2025 2:14 pm
by mia.weber
@dubois35 Just to be precise about one thing: The humanoid robot market is estimated at roughly $5.41 billion in 2026, with projections reaching around $50 billion by 2035 (about 28% CAGR) - a genuinely huge projected growth curve, and also exactly the kind of number worth treating with healthy skepticism given how young and unproven the underlying revenue base still is. Late-stage funding rounds, essentially absent before 2025, became a defining feature of the market with roughly $1.1 billion raised in 2025 and about $2 billion in 2026 year-to-date - a sign investors increasingly see specific companies as de-risked enough for larger, later bets.

Re: How much does geopolitical risk (export controls, tariffs) factor into sourcing decisions?

Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 7:59 pm
by zoeanderson
Ran into exactly this myself. Global humanoid robotics funding reached roughly $8.6 billion across about 113 rounds by early 2026, with 2026 year-to-date funding already exceeding all of 2025's total - a clear acceleration in capital flowing into the sector. Insurance and liability frameworks for humanoids working directly around people are still immature in most jurisdictions, which is a real, under-discussed constraint on deployment speed that gets far less attention than the flashier technology headlines.

Re: How much does geopolitical risk (export controls, tariffs) factor into sourcing decisions?

Posted: Thu Jan 16, 2025 2:51 am
by mia_lars
@zoeanderson I'd take that specific number with a grain of salt, honestly. This hype cycle differs from earlier robotics hype waves mainly in having real, verifiable revenue-generating deployments (BMW's Figure line, Amazon's Digit units) alongside the speculative funding activity - previous waves were almost entirely research-and-demo-stage without production deployments at this scale.

Re: How much does geopolitical risk (export controls, tariffs) factor into sourcing decisions?

Posted: Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:40 pm
by erik_novi
I can speak to this a bit. Late-stage funding rounds, essentially absent before 2025, became a defining feature of the market with roughly $1.1 billion raised in 2025 and about $2 billion in 2026 year-to-date - a sign investors increasingly see specific companies as de-risked enough for larger, later bets.