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Re: Anyone following government subsidy programs specifically targeting humanoid manufacturing?
Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2025 3:35 am
by gimbalmar65
@tariqlarsen I'd push back on this a bit.
Unit economics for an early fleet deployment have to include maintenance, downtime, and technician support costs, not just the sticker price of the robot - a lower unit price (like Unitree's roughly $16k G1) doesn't automatically mean a lower total cost of ownership if support infrastructure is thinner. Automotive OEMs becoming the leading early-adopter vertical isn't really about cars specifically - it's about those companies already having structured facilities, existing automation budgets, and risk tolerance for piloting new equipment at scale.
Re: Anyone following government subsidy programs specifically targeting humanoid manufacturing?
Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2025 7:31 am
by benjaminsanchez
Small correction on one detail:
Chinese humanoid startups reportedly accounted for around 65% of deal volume in 2025, while US companies still won the largest individual rounds, with at least three raises exceeding $400 million - deal count and deal size tell different stories depending on which region you're looking at.
Re: Anyone following government subsidy programs specifically targeting humanoid manufacturing?
Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2025 7:44 pm
by cynthia.muller
I'd frame this differently.
Chinese humanoid startups reportedly accounted for around 65% of deal volume in 2025, while US companies still won the largest individual rounds, with at least three raises exceeding $400 million - deal count and deal size tell different stories depending on which region you're looking at.
Re: Anyone following government subsidy programs specifically targeting humanoid manufacturing?
Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2025 9:25 am
by ashley_flor
@cynthia.muller Small correction on one detail:
The humanoid robot market is estimated at roughly $5.41 billion in 2026, with projections reaching around $50 billion by 2035 (about 28% CAGR) - a genuinely huge projected growth curve, and also exactly the kind of number worth treating with healthy skepticism given how young and unproven the underlying revenue base still is.
Re: Anyone following government subsidy programs specifically targeting humanoid manufacturing?
Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2025 4:40 am
by mohammed64
Respectfully, I think this undersells it a bit.
Pilot-to-contract conversion rate is one of the most important and least publicly available numbers in this industry - a company running many flashy pilots isn't the same as a company converting those pilots into multi-year recurring revenue.
This whole thread is a good reminder how young this field still is.
Re: Anyone following government subsidy programs specifically targeting humanoid manufacturing?
Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2025 3:48 am
by erik_novi
@mohammed64 Speaking from personal experience here,
Q1 2026 alone saw about $2.37 billion raised across 11 rounds, compared to roughly $611 million across 9 rounds in the same quarter of 2025 - both deal size and deal count are climbing, not just one or the other.
Re: Anyone following government subsidy programs specifically targeting humanoid manufacturing?
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2025 11:26 pm
by giulia.roberts4
@erik_novi Related question -
Insurance and liability frameworks for humanoids working directly around people are still immature in most jurisdictions, which is a real, under-discussed constraint on deployment speed that gets far less attention than the flashier technology headlines.
Reminds me a bit of the early drone hobbyist scene, honestly.
Re: Anyone following government subsidy programs specifically targeting humanoid manufacturing?
Posted: Sun Nov 09, 2025 8:10 am
by dchen
Not sure I fully agree here.
Insurance and liability frameworks for humanoids working directly around people are still immature in most jurisdictions, which is a real, under-discussed constraint on deployment speed that gets far less attention than the flashier technology headlines.
Anyway, good thread - following for more.