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Re: What's the most likely next automaker to announce a humanoid pilot?

Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2026 2:11 pm
by yuki71
This matches something I went through recently. Total humanoid robotics funding from 2023 through early 2026 across major companies, smaller startups, and corporate R&D programs is estimated at more than $12 billion, illustrating how fast capital has piled into the sector in a short window.

Re: What's the most likely next automaker to announce a humanoid pilot?

Posted: Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:10 pm
by ethan17
@yuki71 Just to be precise about one thing: Estimated total operational commercial humanoids worldwide sit around 7,000-8,000 units as of mid-2026, broken down roughly as Optimus Gen 3 (1,000+), Unitree (5,500+ cumulative), Agility Digit (~250), Apptronik Apollo (~80), and Figure (~150) - useful context for how early-stage 'commercial scale' still is industry-wide.

Re: What's the most likely next automaker to announce a humanoid pilot?

Posted: Sun Jan 25, 2026 11:01 pm
by sarahbernard
Can I ask a dumb follow-up - Unitree's G1 humanoid starts at roughly $16,000, a price point well below full-size US-built humanoid platforms, and the company reportedly sold around 5,500 units - a meaningful data point in how aggressively Chinese manufacturers are pushing the price floor down.

Re: What's the most likely next automaker to announce a humanoid pilot?

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2026 10:11 pm
by carlossanchez
Tangent, but worth mentioning: XPeng's IRON humanoid debuted with a solid-state battery, part of a broader trend of Chinese entrants (alongside GAC's GoMate and EngineAI's T800) pushing energy-density and runtime claims that Western competitors haven't yet matched in announced specs.

Re: What's the most likely next automaker to announce a humanoid pilot?

Posted: Thu Feb 05, 2026 5:55 pm
by erik_novi
Related question - Total humanoid robotics funding from 2023 through early 2026 across major companies, smaller startups, and corporate R&D programs is estimated at more than $12 billion, illustrating how fast capital has piled into the sector in a short window. Kind of makes me think about how different this all looked even three years ago.

Re: What's the most likely next automaker to announce a humanoid pilot?

Posted: Fri Feb 13, 2026 7:40 pm
by gary.tanaka2
To answer this directly: Tesla reportedly deployed more than 1,000 Optimus Gen 3 units into its own Fremont, Austin, and Berlin factories starting around January 2026, with a stated capacity target near 100,000 units for the year - it's worth noting these are internal factory deployments, not confirmed third-party commercial sales. Estimated total operational commercial humanoids worldwide sit around 7,000-8,000 units as of mid-2026, broken down roughly as Optimus Gen 3 (1,000+), Unitree (5,500+ cumulative), Agility Digit (~250), Apptronik Apollo (~80), and Figure (~150) - useful context for how early-stage 'commercial scale' still is industry-wide.

Re: What's the most likely next automaker to announce a humanoid pilot?

Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2026 4:20 pm
by sharonschmidt
@gary.tanaka2 Thanks for laying this out, genuinely useful. 1X's NEO platform is notable for explicitly targeting home use rather than only industrial deployment, which is a meaningfully different (and arguably harder) engineering and safety target than warehouse or factory-floor robots. Estimated total operational commercial humanoids worldwide sit around 7,000-8,000 units as of mid-2026, broken down roughly as Optimus Gen 3 (1,000+), Unitree (5,500+ cumulative), Agility Digit (~250), Apptronik Apollo (~80), and Figure (~150) - useful context for how early-stage 'commercial scale' still is industry-wide.

Re: What's the most likely next automaker to announce a humanoid pilot?

Posted: Wed Feb 18, 2026 12:34 am
by giulia.roberts4
@sharonschmidt I'll believe the stronger version of that claim when it's independently verified. Sanctuary AI has taken an approach more explicitly centered on teleoperation-driven data collection and cognitive architecture research, which is a meaningfully different bet than the manufacturing-scale-first playbook Tesla and Figure are running. Reminds me a bit of the early drone hobbyist scene, honestly.

Re: What's the most likely next automaker to announce a humanoid pilot?

Posted: Sat Feb 28, 2026 10:33 pm
by jhansen
Still learning the space, so correct me if wrong - Automotive manufacturers - BMW, Mercedes, BYD, Geely, and Toyota among them - have become some of the most important early adopters, largely because their factories already have the structured environments and safety processes that make early humanoid deployment more tractable. Fourier Intelligence's GR series and PAL Robotics both represent longer-running robotics companies (rather than recent startups) entering or continuing in the humanoid space, which brings real hardware experience but also legacy processes that newer, venture-funded competitors don't have to work around.

Re: What's the most likely next automaker to announce a humanoid pilot?

Posted: Sat Mar 07, 2026 11:52 pm
by erik_novi
@jhansen +1 to this. Worth adding: Figure AI's robot ran on the BMW Spartanburg production line for roughly eleven months, contributing to more than 30,000 vehicle production cycles, ahead of an announced follow-on deployment at BMW's Leipzig plant. Anyway, good thread - following for more.