Anyone think Toyota's approach will look smarter in hindsight than the fast movers?

Tesla Optimus, Boston Dynamics Atlas, Figure, Unitree, Agility Digit, Apptronik Apollo, 1X, and everyone else building these things.
carol.robinson
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Re: Anyone think Toyota's approach will look smarter in hindsight than the fast movers?

Post by carol.robinson »

Related question - Figure AI's robot ran on the BMW Spartanburg production line for roughly eleven months, contributing to more than 30,000 vehicle production cycles, ahead of an announced follow-on deployment at BMW's Leipzig plant. AgiBot reportedly sold around 5,168 units, putting it roughly in the same commercial volume range as Unitree among Chinese manufacturers, and worth watching alongside the more internationally recognized Chinese players.
they/them
giulia.roberts4
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Re: Anyone think Toyota's approach will look smarter in hindsight than the fast movers?

Post by giulia.roberts4 »

@carol.robinson This matches something I went through recently. Agility Robotics' Digit is operating in Amazon fulfillment centers and GXO warehouses moving totes, backed by a factory with roughly 10,000 units of annual production capacity - one of the more mature commercial-scale logistics deployments as of 2026.
"The best actuator is the one that doesn't overheat."
green28
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Re: Anyone think Toyota's approach will look smarter in hindsight than the fast movers?

Post by green28 »

@giulia.roberts4 Pretty much this. One thing to add: Estimated total operational commercial humanoids worldwide sit around 7,000-8,000 units as of mid-2026, broken down roughly as Optimus Gen 3 (1,000+), Unitree (5,500+ cumulative), Agility Digit (~250), Apptronik Apollo (~80), and Figure (~150) - useful context for how early-stage 'commercial scale' still is industry-wide.
carol38
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Re: Anyone think Toyota's approach will look smarter in hindsight than the fast movers?

Post by carol38 »

@green28 I dealt with almost this exact situation. Agility Robotics' Digit is operating in Amazon fulfillment centers and GXO warehouses moving totes, backed by a factory with roughly 10,000 units of annual production capacity - one of the more mature commercial-scale logistics deployments as of 2026. 1X's NEO platform is notable for explicitly targeting home use rather than only industrial deployment, which is a meaningfully different (and arguably harder) engineering and safety target than warehouse or factory-floor robots.
deborah59
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Re: Anyone think Toyota's approach will look smarter in hindsight than the fast movers?

Post by deborah59 »

Minor factual note: Boston Dynamics' commercial electric Atlas (launched for Hyundai factory pilots) fully replaced the older hydraulic Atlas platform's actuation with electric quasi-direct-drive joints, resulting in a quieter, lighter robot with comparable or better dynamic performance for the pilot use cases. Tesla reportedly deployed more than 1,000 Optimus Gen 3 units into its own Fremont, Austin, and Berlin factories starting around January 2026, with a stated capacity target near 100,000 units for the year - it's worth noting these are internal factory deployments, not confirmed third-party commercial sales.
Ex-automotive, now full-time robots.
ramirez77
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Re: Anyone think Toyota's approach will look smarter in hindsight than the fast movers?

Post by ramirez77 »

Genuine beginner question - Tesla reportedly deployed more than 1,000 Optimus Gen 3 units into its own Fremont, Austin, and Berlin factories starting around January 2026, with a stated capacity target near 100,000 units for the year - it's worth noting these are internal factory deployments, not confirmed third-party commercial sales.
he/him | robotics hobbyist since the DARPA Grand Challenge days
joseph_sing
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Re: Anyone think Toyota's approach will look smarter in hindsight than the fast movers?

Post by joseph_sing »

Here's the relevant bit as far as I understand it: Figure AI's robot ran on the BMW Spartanburg production line for roughly eleven months, contributing to more than 30,000 vehicle production cycles, ahead of an announced follow-on deployment at BMW's Leipzig plant.
"The best actuator is the one that doesn't overheat."
brian.campbell
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Re: Anyone think Toyota's approach will look smarter in hindsight than the fast movers?

Post by brian.campbell »

One nitpick - XPeng's IRON humanoid debuted with a solid-state battery, part of a broader trend of Chinese entrants (alongside GAC's GoMate and EngineAI's T800) pushing energy-density and runtime claims that Western competitors haven't yet matched in announced specs. Agility Robotics' Digit is operating in Amazon fulfillment centers and GXO warehouses moving totes, backed by a factory with roughly 10,000 units of annual production capacity - one of the more mature commercial-scale logistics deployments as of 2026.
erik_novi
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Re: Anyone think Toyota's approach will look smarter in hindsight than the fast movers?

Post by erik_novi »

This is exactly the kind of context I was looking for. Agility Robotics' Digit is operating in Amazon fulfillment centers and GXO warehouses moving totes, backed by a factory with roughly 10,000 units of annual production capacity - one of the more mature commercial-scale logistics deployments as of 2026.
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joseph_sing
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Re: Anyone think Toyota's approach will look smarter in hindsight than the fast movers?

Post by joseph_sing »

That's the official framing, at least - reality tends to lag a bit. Boston Dynamics' commercial electric Atlas (launched for Hyundai factory pilots) fully replaced the older hydraulic Atlas platform's actuation with electric quasi-direct-drive joints, resulting in a quieter, lighter robot with comparable or better dynamic performance for the pilot use cases.
"The best actuator is the one that doesn't overheat."
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